Project Information

Title: Modeling and stock assessment of Prince William Sound herring 22120111-C

Project Year and Number: 2022: 22120111-C

Other Fiscal Years and Numbers for this Project: 2024: 24120111-C, 2023: 23120111-C, 2021: 21120111-C, 2020: 20120111-C, 2019: 19120111-C, 2018: 18120111-C, 2017: 17120111-C, 2016: 16120111-Q, 2015: 15120111-Q, 2014: 14120111-Q, 2013: 13120111-Q, 2012: 12120111-Q

Principal Investigator (PI): Trevor Branch (University of Washington)

Managing Agency: NOAA

Assisting Personnel: None

Project Website: https://pwssc.org/modeling-herring/

Research Location: Prince William Sound

Restoration Category: Monitoring, Research

Injured Resources Addressed: Commercial Fishing, Pacific Herring

Abstract:

 Pacific herring play a central role in the Prince William Sound ecosystem, and sustained valuable fisheries, but collapsed in 1993 and have not recovered. Rebuilding herring is a core goal of this program, and stock assessments are used to assess their past and present status to determine if fisheries can reopen safely. Over the past ten years we created a Bayesian age-structured assessment model (BASA), expanded it to fit to new time series and disease data, placed Prince William Sound herring in the context of global herring populations, and examined factors affecting recruitment, natural mortality, spawning location, and spawn timing in this population. Over the next ten years we propose to revise and expand BASA and conduct annual stock assessments of Prince William Sound herring. In addition, we propose to review best practices for managing highly variable fish populations and use this information to provide advice for management of Prince William Sound herring. The main tool we will use is a management strategy evaluation that comprises an operating model of truth that generates data mimicking those available in reality, the data are fed into BASA, and then a harvest control rule is used to set catches in the next year. By repeating this process, we can (1) evaluate different harvest control rules, (2) assess the trade-offs between cost and frequency of future surveys, (3) and test the robustness of the management system and BASA to misspecification. Unless higher priorities arise, we also propose to develop a spatial model of herring to capture key components of fishing, spawning, and movement; and to develop a simplified ecosystem model focusing on key competitors and predators (humpback whales, pink salmon, and pollock) to allow for more holistic predictions of herring abundance. Our proposal will provide useful advice to better manage Prince William Sound herring.

This project was approved for the FY22-FY26 funding cycle.


Proposal: View (917 KB)

Reports:
FY22 Annual Report: View (918 KB)

Publications from this Project: None Available

Resolutions: